Article | Spring 2008
First QMSS-NYAAPOR Event Examines Elections
by Fletcher Haulley (ISERP)
Colorful tales of election-related fraud and the controversial issue of felon disenfranchisement have marred the perceived integrity of elections in the United States. These complementary themes of American democracy were given deeper inspection at the first joint meeting of the New York Chapter American Association of Public Opinion Research (NYAAPOR) and ISERP's Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences (QMSS) Research Seminar in February 2008. Capitalizing on the shared research interests of the two groups, these joint meetings will continue to bring quantitative methods master's students and NYAAPOR-affiliated public opinion experts together on a regular basis as the semester unfolds.
At this first meeting, Lorraine Minnite (Barnard Political Science) kicked off the discussion by presenting her ongoing research on voter fraud-the corruption of the electoral process by voters-in national elections. Allegations of ballot tampering, vote-buying, registration fraud, illegal voting, and other irregularities have been a centerpiece of nearly every voting reform act in the history of the country. And yet, substantiating these claims has proven difficult. Very few instances of voter fraud have been confirmed, despite the incendiary rhetoric of politicians and numerous allegations by voters.
What could account for this discrepancy? Local politicians and officials have often paid lip service to the importance of securing the polls. Perhaps they were uninterested in prosecuting fraud, or maybe they simply weren't finding it. Minnite resolved to figure out the truth. Following up on incidents identified by a Department of Justice pilot program, which indicted 95 individuals with election crimes between October 2002 and September 2005, she found that claims of voter fraud were greatly exaggerated and that in most instances, violations consisted of illegal voting (e.g., voting by felons) as opposed to more egregious crimes like vote-buying.
One of her main findings was that the problem may lie more with government bureaucracy than with any malign intentions on the part of those indicted. Preliminary data revealed the pilot program's disproportionate focus on 14 African American felons who had voted fraudulently in Milwaukee. Minnite decided to dig deeper. She found that in many cases, illegal voting was not intentional. Many felons targeted by this government program never realized, or were never told, that their convictions were felonies, nor did they realize that they could not vote as a result. And they were apparently not alone in this lack of awareness. In one case, an individual, after showing his prison ID to polling volunteers, was allowed to vote, only to be convicted later on. While there seems to be little actual threat emanating from voter fraud, allegations of which are overblown according to the data, Minnite concluded that it would continue to serve as a polarizing force for a long time to come.
Jeffrey Manza (NYU) and David Weiman (Barnard Economics) continued the discussion by examining the controversial issue of felony disenfranchisement in historical perspective. The passage of laws prohibiting felons from voting gained momentum in the mid-19th century. Often a means of alienating poor populations from the democratic process, particularly newly emancipated African Americans in the South as well as burgeoning immigrant groups in the Northeast, these laws didn't begin to change until the 1960s.
The enduring effects of these policies can be seen today. In 2004, 5.3 million people were not allowed to vote due to their felony status. The demographics are astounding and asymmetrically affect black men of voting age-one in seven, to be precise. The impact of repealing felony disenfranchisement laws on electoral outcomes is uncertain due to a lack of data on the voting behavior of this population. However, matching other demographic characteristics of the felon population allows for a crude prediction instrument. Results show that giving these disenfranchised populations the right to vote can indeed make a decisive difference. The prediction that Florida, with its disenfranchised population of roughly 1.2 million, would have gone to Al Gore in the 2000 election illustrates this point only too clearly.
What is the future of felony disenfranchisement in the United States? Countervailing forces-increasing support for civil liberties, on the one hand, and a strong and harsh criminal justice system, on the other-make it difficult to come up with a clear answer. But one thing is certain. The monumental challenges of the criminal justice system will eventually need to be faced head on, not just in the context of voting rights concerns but also for the sake of the continued health of American society, politics, and democracy.
Visit www.nyaapor.org for details on upcoming events and registration.
