Article | Winter 2007-2008
Race, Reform, and the 2008 Presidential Nomination
by Fredrick Harris (ISERP)
The influence of blacks within the Democratic Party has changed markedly since 1964, when civil rights activist Fannie Lou Hammer and the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party (MFDP) challenged the all-white delegation of Mississippi Democrats at the party's convention in Atlantic City. Thus began the era of reforming the presidential nomination system to make the process more racially inclusive. The aftermath of the contentious 1968 Democratic convention led to reforms that called for transparency in the delegate selection process, greater participation by the party's rank and file, and better representation of blacks, women, and younger voters as delegates, which led to similar reforms in the delegate selection process within the Republican Party. The presidential runs of Shirley Chrisom in 1972 and of Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988 brought more African Americans into the presidential nomination process and provided a means for blacks to set the agenda on issues they cared most about, such as civil rights, fighting poverty, economic justice, and urban revitalization.
In the context of African American politics, the 2008 presidential election cycle presents black voters with a unique opportunity to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary, as well as the November general election. And yet, the front-loading of presidential primaries in the first six weeks of the year has once again raised questions about representation and fairness in the presidential nomination process and about whether the selection process needs to be overhauled and replaced with a more inclusive process. How will feelings of group solidarity among blacks influence their candidate preferences? And to what extent do citizens believe in the power of the existing electoral system to truly represent the American public and produce a fair and accurate count of the vote?
The Racial Attitudes and Presidential Nomination Survey, the first survey to explore racial attitudes toward the presidential nomination process, provides some answers to these questions. This survey, consisting of a nationally representative sample of 1,420 respondents and an over-sample of African Americans, was conducted by Schulman, Ronca, and Bucuvalas, Inc. and fielded between November 16 and December 13, 2007. In presenting the results of this poll, the Center for African American Politics and Society examines and illuminates racial differences in opinions on the current system of selecting presidential nominees and gauges attitudes on whether-and how-the current process should be reformed.
Main Findings
Levels of Satisfaction
The survey finds similarities among blacks and whites on levels of satisfaction with the current presidential nomination process. A slight majority of blacks (53%) and whites (54%) were satisfied with the present system while a sizeable minority of both blacks (41%) and whites (40%) reported being somewhat or very unhappy with the current process.
Candidate Values and the Nomination Process
Despite considerable support among both blacks and whites for reforming the current system, as shown in Figure 1, their attitudes diverge when asked about the factors that are important to producing their party's nominees.
While the electability of a candidate is valued highly by both blacks and whites, large differences in voting priorities become apparent in other areas. Blacks are considerably more likely than whites to value nominees who are ideologically "pure" and won't compromise on issues, and to value candidates that make them proud to be members of their political party. Blacks are also significantly more likely than whites to embrace ideological diversity on the party's ticket and to believe that a regionally balanced ticket is "very important." When it comes to giving minorities a voice in the nomination process, we observe the starkest difference in racial attitudes, with 76 percent of blacks viewing this value as "very important" to producing a presidential candidate compared to 56 percent of whites.
Alternative Systems for Nominating the President
One of the largest racial differences in opinion is whether the tradition of New Hampshire holding the first presidential primary should remain. Fifty-nine percent of blacks compared with 44 percent of whites strongly favoring the elimination of this tradition while 24 percent of blacks and 37 percent of whites believe in upholding it. In spite of this disagreement, both groups generally supported alternative systems for selecting presidential nominees. Most blacks (61%) and whites (62%) agreed that a single nationwide primary election would mark an improvement over the existing system. To a lesser degree, blacks (46%) and whites (41%) supported regional primaries. However, when asked to consider the viability of a system that would stagger primary elections based on the size of a state's population-with the smallest states holding the first and the largest states holding the last primaries-most blacks (54%) supported this reform while only a minority of whites (45%) agreed.
Candidate Preferences and Black Solidarity
How feelings of black solidarity will affect the voter preferences of African Americans in the primary contests remains to be seen. Table 1 presents attitudes among black respondents regarding the relationship between black identity and political participation. Results indicate that most blacks see group politics as a problem in American politics, and yet, blacks are almost evenly divided on whether all blacks should stand together when it comes to politics. It is also unclear how a strong sense of shared fate with other blacks translates into voter preferences, especially as it relates to support for black candidates. Survey results also indicate that a strong sense of black solidarity does not necessarily translate into unfettered support for black candidates. Therefore, we see the same levels of black solidarity among those who favor the two leading Democratic contenders, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. We also note that at the time of the survey, black Democrats were evenly divided in their support for Clinton (37%) and Obama (38%).
Democratic Party Best Strategy for Black Political Empowerment?
While blacks have made strides within the Democratic Party over the past decades and are one of the party's most loyal voting constituencies, less than half of blacks surveyed (47%) agree or strongly agree that continued support for the party is the best way to increase the political power of blacks; a solid minority (33%) disagree or strongly disagree.
Less Confidence in the Vote Count
As reflected in the contested votes in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, blacks report less confidence in whether votes in the 2008 presidential election will be fair and accurate. Nearly half of blacks (46%) think the vote count will "probably not" or "certainly not" be fair compared to nearly a quarter of whites (24%).
Fredrick C. Harris is Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and Director of the Center on African American Politics and Society at ISERP. His research interests include American politics, social movements, religion and politics, political development, and African American politics.
