Current Research at ISERP
Peacebuilding in Sudan
by Macartan Humphreys (Political Science) and Jeremy Weinstein (Stanford)
Research we have been undertaking on conflict and peacebuilding draws from survey based information on combatants in civil war contexts. This work has opened up new lines for research and has since been or is being replicated by other researchers in a number of countries. For some kinds of questions. however, this form of survey methodology and data analysis is not adequate. In particular, it is limited in its ability to evaluate programs that involve an unobserved selection component. This includes many DDR programs and peacekeeping operations. In our study of Sierra Leone, for example, we have a disturbing finding: there is no micro-level evidence that peacekeeping operations facilitated demobilization and reintegration. The absence of evidence may be because this program, one of the largest in the world, was ineffective. However, it may also be a result of Â'selection effectsÂ'—self-selection of fighters that chose to enter UN programs and site selection decisions of UN officers regarding troop placements. Addressing these selection problems statistically is difficult and often impossible. There is however a first best methodology—randomized intervention—that can in principle be employed. The next frontier in micro research on peacebuilding and peacekeeping, we argue, will likely aim to employ these methods to estimate the causal efficacy of interventions in divided societies. However, to work, this approach depends on the support of implementing institutions, in this case, the UN.
This study will draw upon this new approach in Sudan. The overall research project consists of three aspects: (i) designing, together with UN implementers, an appropriate form of randomized intervention for the Sudan case, (ii) the collection of baseline and ongoing indicators of human security, and (iii) the collection of panel data on ex-combatant background and conditions. The proposal involves a strategy for engaging with the UN on selecting an appropriate intervention, and a schedule for creating the mechanisms for collecting the two forms of data that will be essential to analyzing the outcomes of a randomized intervention.
See Also
- Research grants undertaken by Macartan Humphreys
Funded by Folke Bernadotte Academy »
