Working Paper No. 2006 | 10
Forecasting House Seats from General Congressional Polls
by Robert Erikson (Political Science), Joseph Bafumi (Dartmouth), and Christopher Wlezien (Temple)
According to the frequent polling on the generic ballot for Congress, the Democrats hold a large advantage leading up to the vote on November 7. But does this Democratic edge mean that the Democrats will win a majority of House seats? Doubts are often expressed about the accuracy of the generic ballot polls. And even if the polls are correct in indicating a majority of votes going to Democratic candidates, further doubts are expressed about whether the DemocratsÂ' vote margin will be sufficient to win the most seats. This paper is intended to provide some guidance for translating the results of generic congressional polls into the election outcome.
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