Timothy Frye: What Are Some Possible Outcomes From Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine?
Timothy M. Frye, Marshall D. Shulman Professor of Post-Soviet Foreign Policy, published in Columbia News.
As Russia continues to amass troops along Ukraine's border and the U.S. announces plans to deploy troops in Eastern Europe, the regional situation looks increasingly perilous.
For two terms, President Obama promised that U.S. foreign policy would pivot to Asia given the need to address the challenge of a rising China, but crises in Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, and Afghanistan frustrated those efforts. It looks like President Biden’s attempts to do the same will suffer a similar fate. However the current crisis on Russia’s border unfolds, European security will be a high priority for Washington and its allies in Europe for the near future.
President Biden came to office hoping to focus on East Asia and to “park” Russia. The Kremlin had other ideas. Following a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine’s eastern border in the spring of 2021, the White House agreed to a summit with President Putin in June 2021 with the goal of creating a “stable and predictable” relationship with the Kremlin so that more attention could be paid to China.